A few years ago I got into an argument with a friend.

It was over inconsistencies around COVID lockdowns, censorship, and media coverage.
It was clear we were being lied to. Things just didn’t add up. I suspected there was something bigger at play, but couldn’t definitively prove it.

He completely dismissed my argument and called me crazy.

I was pissed.

His reasoning?

Occam’s Razor, the philosophical razor that basically states “the simplest answer is most likely to be true.”

I wasn’t angry that he disagreed with me. I like being challenged.

I was angry that my talking points weren’t being considered.
I was angry that I couldn’t come up with a rebuttal Occam’s Razor, right there on the spot.

That day was a turning point for me.

It forced me to think deeply. It pushed me to do some research. It helped me become a better thinker. It challenged me to examine Occam’s Razor and articulate what specifically I disagreed with about it.

That day pushed me create a simple framework I now lean on almost every week.

I can honestly say nothing has helped me understand how the world actually works more clearly and concisely than this.

It’s helped me make sense of the events in the Middle East, US politics, world history, dating, and the shenanigans in Corporate America…everything boils down to the same fundamental principles.

To be fair, I’m still ignorant and naive.
I’m just less ignorant and naive than before.

Don’t get me wrong, Occam’s Razor is a useful framework.

But it has one major flaw: it doesn’t account for human nature.

It treats the world like a clean physics problem and forgets the world is full of people, some of whom lie, cheat, steal and kill, and then go to great lengths covering it up.

So, I came up with a corollary to Occam’s Razor. Graham's Razor. It has three parts.

1. The self-interest principle governs all human behavior.
Let me be clear: self-interest is not necessarily selfishness. Selfishness takes from others. Self-interest just means people act in ways that serve them. If you have the choice between receiving a hug from a loved one, or a punch in the face, which would you take? Exactly. That’s the self-interest principle. That’s doesn’t make you selfish. What about altruism? Does it really exist? No. The woman who volunteers every weekend is serving herself too. It feels good, it fits her picture of herself, it validates her identity as a “good person”. That does not make her a fraud. It makes her human. We are all motivated by the same narrow set of drivers. The self-interest principle is one of them.

2. Some people will go further than others to advance their self-interests.
This is what Occam’s Razor overlooks. Whether it’s lying, stealing, killing, cheating, colluding, blackmailing, or bribing; some people will do anything to get what they want.

We have countless examples of this. Here’s a few reminders in case you need them.

In the area of religion, pastor, Jim Bakker, a prominent televangelist, was sentenced to 45 years in prison and fined $500,000 on October 24, 1989, after being found guilty of fraud and conspiracy linked to his evangelical television enterprise, PTL (Praise the Lord) Ministries.

In sports we have Lance Armstrong who won seven Tours, denied doping for a decade, sued his accusers, then confessed. His excuse was that everyone else was doing it too.

In the realm of higher education, we saw wealthy parents funnel over $25M dollars through a consultant that bribed coaches to pass rich kids off as fake athletic recruits at USC, Yale, and Stanford.

When it comes to politics, last week, on her final day in office, outgoing U.S. Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, released declassified documents showing Dr. Anthony Fauci funded the risky Wuhan research, steered intelligence away from the lab-leak theory, and lied to Congress under oath. Several years ago the Panama Papers and Pandora Papers, tied hidden offshore wealth to hundreds of world leaders from dozens of countries. These are not a few bad apples. This is the whole orchard.

And lastly, let’s not forget about Bernie Madoff ran the largest Ponzi scheme in history and got a hundred and fifty years.

3. Those people are disproportionately overrepresented at the top.
To be clear, I’m not saying everyone in charge is corrupt. There are good people everywhere, the top included. But let’s put it this way; if 3% of the general population is corrupt, the number of corrupt people at the top is way higher than 3%, it’s probably closer to 30%, or maybe much higher in certain situations. And this is for good reason. Imagine you and I were in competition with each other for something, and we both have equal talent, equal skills, and equal resources. But if one of us is willing to cheat and the other is not, we know that 100% of the time the person who is willing to cheat is going to win. In this situation, being an honest and good person becomes a liability. You are at a disadvantage if you don’t cheat. This is why there are so many corrupt people at the top, regardless of the industry, country, or competition. There’s a reason why 1 in 5 business leaders are psychopaths.

Embracing Graham’s Razor isn’t always easy. It can be frustrating, disappointing and disheartening to know the truth about the world really works. But I believe it’s incredibly important to do it.

The reason why this matters so much is because our beliefs determine how we experience the world and ultimately dictate everything that we do in life.

Think about Google Maps in comparison to an old-school paper map.
What makes Google Maps better isn’t the convenience or the turn-by-turn directions.

Google Maps is better because it more accurately represents the real-world conditions.
It knows about the road closure, the crash, the construction delay.

Our beliefs work the same way. They are the maps we use to navigate the roads of reality, and most people are still running on one they were handed as kids and never updated.

For example, take the belief of "everyone should go to college.”
That map worked for a long time.

Today it leads people straight into debt and a degree that does not pay, because the terrain changed and the map did not.

None of this is meant to make you a cynic or a downer about the world.

My goal is to help you navigate life, and an accurate map is necessary for it.

Updating it takes courage, because the truth is usually uncomfortable at first.

Keeping your head in the sand has never saved anyone.

The more hard truths you are willing to face, the smarter and stronger you get, and the better you’ll be at navigating the roads of reality.

The truth may make you miserable for a minute. But then it will set you free.

Here’s to your freedom.

Here's your reflection for the week:

How do you decide what is true and who is trustworthy? Name the sources you lean on, and ask what track record actually earned that trust. How would you know if they were misleading you? What systems do you have in place to make sure your beliefs are continually being updated?

Here's your challenge for the week:

Create a system for testing your beliefs. Pick a cadence (e.g. quarterly, semi-annually, annually), and list your core beliefs about money, work, people, politicians, etc. Give yourself the space to sit with them and ask probing questions. Considering everything we do is based on a belief, this might be one of the most valuable rituals you can adopt.

With courage,

Jonathan